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Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30619/-1 CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This halo is associated with the X2.2 class flare from AR13664 peaking at 2024-05-09T09:13Z. A clear EUV wave is visible in SDO/AIA 193 and 211 crossing towards the central meridian and towards the limb in the southwest. Post-eruptive arcades are present in SDO/AIA 193 and 131. Brightening is visible in SDO/AIA 304. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 9.0 Dst min. in nT: -412 Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T13:03Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 9.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30651/1 Model Inputs: 2024-05-08T05:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=9.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=870.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T09:30Z 2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=776.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T16:58Z 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-23.0, Lat.=3.0, Speed=828.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2024-05-08T23:27Z 2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=1130.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T01:43Z 2024-05-09T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=1330.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-05-09T11:56Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-10T13:03Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.1 (kp)90=8 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-12T04:05Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-10T07:53Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_093200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 37.03 hour(s) Difference: 20.45 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-05-09T20:28Z |
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